Migration, Geopolitics, and International Law: Rethinking Legal Protections in Times of Turmoil

Introduction

Migration is one of the defining features of our globalized era. Armed conflicts, economic instability, and climate change have fueled unprecedented levels of human displacement, testing the resilience of international legal frameworks and the moral commitments of states. While the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol remain the cornerstone of refugee protection, twenty-first-century migration flows extend far beyond the refugee paradigm. Millions of individuals migrate not because of a well-founded fear of persecution but due to poverty, environmental degradation, or political upheaval.

This article argues that current international legal instruments are insufficient to address the complexities of contemporary migration. It highlights the geopolitical factors driving displacement, analyzes the gaps in existing protections, and proposes a rethinking of migration governance that integrates humanitarian, legal, and sustainable development perspectives.


I. Geopolitical Drivers of Migration

Migration does not occur in a vacuum; it is deeply influenced by geopolitical realities. Armed conflicts in regions such as Syria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine have displaced millions, placing immense pressure on neighboring states and reshaping regional politics. Beyond war, authoritarian regimes and systematic repression drive political dissidents, journalists, and minority groups into exile.

Equally significant are economic and climate-related drivers. Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and parts of the Middle East face acute challenges of unemployment, droughts, and desertification. Climate-induced migration, though not fully recognized under international refugee law, is rapidly becoming one of the largest categories of displacement. The World Bank projects that over 200 million people could be displaced internally by climate change by 2050, with many crossing borders in search of survival.

These complex causes blur the line between “voluntary” and “forced” migration, challenging the adequacy of existing legal categories.


II. The Limits of the Refugee Convention

The Refugee Convention was a remarkable achievement of its time, offering protection to those fleeing persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion. Yet its scope is narrow when compared with the realities of today’s global migration flows.

First, the Convention does not recognize economic or climate migrants, leaving millions without international protection. Second, the requirement of individual persecution often fails to capture situations of generalized violence, where entire communities are at risk. Third, enforcement remains uneven, as states increasingly adopt restrictive asylum policies, externalize border controls, and prioritize national security over humanitarian commitments.

Regional instruments, such as the Cartagena Declaration (1984) in Latin America and the OAU Refugee Convention (1969) in Africa, broaden the definition of refugees to include those fleeing generalized violence and events disturbing public order. However, these remain geographically limited and lack the universal enforceability of the 1951 Convention.


III. Human Rights Law and Migration Governance

While refugee law remains restrictive, international human rights law offers broader protections. Instruments such as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) guarantee fundamental rights to all individuals, regardless of migration status.

In practice, however, implementation remains fragmented. Migrants in irregular situations often face violations of due process, detention in inhumane conditions, and limited access to healthcare or education. The principle of non-refoulement, although widely recognized, is frequently undermined by “pushback” policies at sea or by agreements outsourcing border control to third countries.

The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (2018) and the Global Compact on Refugees (2018) represent soft-law attempts to enhance cooperation, but they remain non-binding, limiting their effectiveness.


IV. Climate Change and the Legal Void

Perhaps the most glaring gap in migration law is the absence of binding protection for climate-displaced persons. While the Paris Agreement acknowledges climate change as a driver of displacement, it offers no specific legal rights to those forced to leave their homes.

The 2020 decision of the UN Human Rights Committee in Ioane Teitiota v. New Zealand marked a breakthrough by recognizing that states cannot return individuals to countries where climate change poses life-threatening risks. Yet such decisions remain exceptional and lack the clarity of codified law. Without legal recognition, millions remain in limbo, caught between environmental devastation and legal invisibility.


V. Migration, Sovereignty, and Security

Migration governance also reveals a deeper tension between state sovereignty and international solidarity. States retain the sovereign right to control their borders, yet this often clashes with international obligations to protect vulnerable populations.

In Europe, the refugee crisis of 2015 exposed the fragility of collective asylum mechanisms, as frontline states such as Greece and Italy were overwhelmed while others resisted burden-sharing. In the United States, migration from Central America has sparked heated debates over asylum, border walls, and humanitarian responsibility. In Asia, the plight of the Rohingya demonstrates how regional inaction exacerbates humanitarian crises.

Security concerns—whether related to terrorism, organized crime, or public health—often dominate political discourse, overshadowing human rights obligations. The challenge for international law is to reconcile legitimate security concerns with the principle of human dignity, ensuring that migrants are not treated as threats but as rights-holders.


VI. Toward a Sustainable Migration Framework

To address the shortcomings of existing frameworks, a reimagined migration governance system must integrate humanitarian, legal, and sustainable development approaches. Several proposals emerge:

  1. Expanding Legal Definitions: International refugee law should evolve to recognize climate-displaced persons and victims of generalized violence as rights-holders entitled to protection.
  2. Regional and Global Burden-Sharing: Strengthening mechanisms for equitable distribution of responsibility is essential. This may include financial contributions, resettlement quotas, or technical assistance to host states.
  3. Human Rights-Centered Policies: Migration management must prioritize access to justice, due process, and protection against arbitrary detention.
  4. Linking Migration and Development: Migration policies should align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), recognizing migrants not as burdens but as contributors to economic and social resilience.
  5. Climate Adaptation Funding: Developed states should increase funding for climate adaptation in vulnerable regions, reducing the root causes of forced migration.

Conclusion

Migration is both a legal and moral challenge of our time. Existing frameworks, designed in the aftermath of World War II, cannot adequately address the complexities of twenty-first-century displacement. Geopolitical conflicts, economic disparities, and climate change demand a more holistic, sustainable, and rights-based approach to migration governance.

International law must evolve—not only to close gaps in protection but also to foster a spirit of solidarity and shared responsibility. Migration, if governed responsibly, can be a driver of development, cultural exchange, and resilience. If neglected, it risks becoming a source of perpetual crisis, exacerbating global instability.

The task ahead is not merely to manage migration but to humanize it, ensuring that the movement of people across borders is guided by principles of justice, dignity, and sustainability.


About the Author

Daniel Mercer is a postgraduate researcher in International Human Rights and Migration Law at the University of Amsterdam. His work explores the intersections of refugee protection, climate displacement, and global migration governance. He has contributed to academic conferences across Europe and Asia and is currently preparing a doctoral thesis on climate-induced migration. This paper was published by Pacta Lexis as part of its Academic Papers initiative to foster global legal scholarship.